Subject: chiapas separatist & other tripoint probabilities in a nutshell<br/>
Date: Jul 15, 2005 @ 06:24<br/>
Author: aletheia kallos (aletheia kallos &lt;aletheiak@...&gt;)<br/>
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<div id="ygrps-yiv-770402025">no need to subscribe to this tho it looks interesting<br/>
<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://ssl.tnr.com/p/docsub.mhtml?i=w050704&s=stavans070605">https://ssl.tnr.com/p/docsub.mhtml?i=w050704&s=stavans070605</a><br/>
for there is fresh word from the horses mouth himself<br/>
<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.counterpunch.org/marcos07142005.html">http://www.counterpunch.org/marcos07142005.html</a><br/>
& this recent summary of events leading up to the<br/>
present state of general red alert<br/>
<br/>
tho controlling only a small fraction of a single<br/>
mexican state<br/>
<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.mtnforum.org/resources/library/images/chiapasconflictmap.gif">http://www.mtnforum.org/resources/library/images/chiapasconflictmap.gif</a><br/>
the so called zapatista movement looks like it has<br/>
real legs <br/>
& feet & shoes too<br/>
so it is hard to predict how far it will go before<br/>
recognition could occur<br/>
& any new tripoint try would still be totally<br/>
unwarranted at this point<br/>
especially as the area of rebel control actually<br/>
appears to be shrinking at the moment anyway<br/>
<br/>
yet i think the chiapas odds should be lowered now to<br/>
9 or even 8 to 1<br/>
in acknowledgment of the impressive power & dignity &<br/>
increasingly nonviolent & confident stance of the ezln<br/>
secession<br/>
even if it is impossible to guess the exact positions<br/>
for the prospective new tripoints<br/>
presumably cpgtmxn & cpgtmxs by name<br/>
& perhaps more or less as indicated in the above map<br/>
but highly subject to change before any de jure<br/>
secession might ever happen<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
in any case<br/>
i would also give 4 to 1 odds against chiapas or any<br/>
other new countries or tricountry points being born<br/>
during the remainder of 2005<br/>
since nothing really looks ripe enough to fall very<br/>
soon yet<br/>
& 3 to 1 against any by high noon on april fools 2006<br/>
& 2 to 1 against any within a year of this post<br/>
all calculated as irresistible loss leaders to at<br/>
least excite some action<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
		<br/>
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