Subject: a few real tripoint prediction data found among crystal ball results<br/>
Date: Dec 11, 2005 @ 21:18<br/>
Author: aletheia kallos (aletheia kallos &lt;aletheiak@...&gt;)<br/>
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<div id="ygrps-yiv-740929280">& not that it was very appetizing to plow thru all<br/>
their dizzying betting scenarios<br/>
so i do apologize to that extent for even presenting<br/>
this stuff<br/>
but combing the strategy page prediction market for<br/>
independence & secession predictions <br/>
<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.strategypage.com/prediction_market/default.asp">http://www.strategypage.com/prediction_market/default.asp</a><br/>
which would naturally be accompanied by new world<br/>
class tripoint formations or promotions<br/>
i find there are actually 3 of these situations up for<br/>
prognostication there already<br/>
<br/>
& their prediction data<br/>
tho structured differently than we might wish<br/>
in that their win or lose applications are<br/>
individually timed rather than mutually competitive<br/>
may still be of interest to us here for the parimutuel<br/>
style betting exercise<br/>
of finding & naming the very next new tripoint<br/>
& only then the next<br/>
& only after that the next etc etc <br/>
if they really are as well informed & qualified there<br/>
as they seem to believe they are<br/>
<br/>
& the most interesting of their 3 predictions comes<br/>
about 3 fifths of the way down the above page<br/>
where this admittedly strange military fraternity does<br/>
indeed even if just barely foresee <br/>
in polling less than 3 weeks old <br/>
that montenegro will declare independence from serbia<br/>
before mid july <br/>
by a score of 367 to 346<br/>
<br/>
& if you shuttle over to the comments section for this<br/>
item<br/>
<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/488-737.asp">http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/488-737.asp</a><br/>
you see they are very much thinking world class in<br/>
exactly the same way as we do<br/>
by their stipulation that independence has to be<br/>
recognized by the united nations<br/>
<br/>
so i have to admit that this actually represents a<br/>
pretty high likelihood & imminence <br/>
in someones opinion anyway<br/>
for a couple of tripoints that we have scarcely been<br/>
seriously considering lately<br/>
after montenegro has failed repeatedly to deliver on<br/>
many such earlier predictions <br/>
<br/>
nevertheless these data do suggest it might be a good<br/>
idea to draw another bead on the relevant tripoints<br/>
<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/europe/serbia_montenegro_pol_97.jpg">http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/europe/serbia_montenegro_pol_97.jpg</a><br/>
especially now that independence is so likely imminent<br/>
next door in kosovo too<br/>
<br/>
for depending on which happens first<br/>
the identity & location of the new world class<br/>
tripoints will be different<br/>
<br/>
if montenegro beats kosovo across the finish line at<br/>
turtle bay<br/>
then the new montenegro serbia border will terminate<br/>
in tripoints with bosnia in the northwest & albania in<br/>
the southeast<br/>
<br/>
but if kosovo beats montenegro<br/>
then kosovos new international border with serbia &<br/>
montenegro will terminate in the west at that exact<br/>
same albania tripoint & in the east with a macedonia<br/>
tripoint<br/>
<br/>
but in the unlikely event that they arrive in a photo<br/>
finish<br/>
& or the much likelier event that the slower new<br/>
country eventually catches up to the faster one<br/>
then besides the already mentioned 3 new world class<br/>
tripoints <br/>
there will also be a new kosovo montenegro serbia<br/>
tripoint<br/>
<br/>
& all 4 of these can stand some closer scrutiny than<br/>
we have so far been able to give them<br/>
<br/>
but of course all this assumes clean breaks & no<br/>
further unforeseen territorial balkanizations<br/>
admittedly a big if<br/>
<br/>
but there already are perhaps the leading pacesetters<br/>
to perhaps lay some fast money on<br/>
alongside the gaza & somaliland entries<br/>
in case you are thinking multifecta<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
which also brings me to their second & somewhat less<br/>
interesting prediction<br/>
1 scroll click up from the bottom<br/>
emphatically foreseeing by nearly 8 to 1 that an<br/>
independent palestinian state will not be created in<br/>
2005<br/>
<br/>
& given the time cutoff<br/>
their contrary oddsmaking is not so surprising<br/>
but i think the large amount of action on both sides<br/>
of this question does suggest that these guessers<br/>
might agree that palestine in some form remains very<br/>
much a front runner <br/>
<br/>
<br/>
& finally & least interesting but i think still<br/>
revealing of the high quality of their crystal ball<br/>
gazing<br/>
is the ukraine breakup item just above the montenegro<br/>
prediction & also on this comment page <br/>
<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/488-755.asp">http://www.strategypage.com/messageboards/messages/488-755.asp</a><br/>
which is i think very rightly going off at about 30 to<br/>
1 against<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
but anyway it is nice to see somebody else in the same<br/>
ballpark even if they turn out to be just a bunch of<br/>
gamers & tinhorns too<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
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