Subject: a wagering pool for the next new tripoint & or country<br/>
Date: May 12, 2005 @ 23:52<br/>
Author: aletheia kallos (aletheia kallos &lt;aletheiak@...&gt;)<br/>
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<br/><br/>
<div id="ygrps-yiv-1892781318">pursuing the recently proposed idea of creating a<br/>
parimutual betting pool for predicting the next world<br/>
class tripoint to be born<br/>
& <br/>
acknowledging the difficulty of setting the necessary<br/>
objective criteria for determining it<br/>
& <br/>
therefore falling back upon the next best surrogate or<br/>
compromise idea<br/>
which would be <br/>
simply <br/>
to correctly predict the next new member state of the<br/>
united nations<br/>
naturally enough <br/>
& it is hoped unarguably enough too when it happens<br/>
i have drawn up a starter list of candidates or<br/>
probabilities<br/>
<br/>
all of which are of course highly subjective &<br/>
hilarious anyway<br/>
<br/>
but they are all at least based on some perceptible<br/>
contemporary independence movement too<br/>
& are just offered as the necessary slope for getting<br/>
a ball rolling<br/>
& so someone might then envision wanting to place a<br/>
small wager on one of them<br/>
at say 10 to 1 odds for starters<br/>
or might prefer to name & bet on some as yet unnamed<br/>
one<br/>
etc<br/>
or bet on 2 present members to merge into 1<br/>
as the yemens for example once did<br/>
& thus rather subtract than add the new tripoint<br/>
since i suppose that sort of thing would be just as<br/>
definitive a probability & outcome<br/>
<br/>
just thinking out loud here of course <br/>
while inviting suggestions additions corrections cooks<br/>
busts etc<br/>
<br/>
or any other things to consider in the creation of it<br/>
<br/>
like first doesnt it already exist in dublin or vegas<br/>
etc as i surmise<br/>
<br/>
or how seriously criminally illegal would it be to do<br/>
in connecticut or anywhere else for that matter<br/>
<br/>
& how about creating complete transparency online<br/>
with the parimutual odds changing as each new bet is<br/>
placed<br/>
<br/>
up to the maximum allowed value<br/>
<br/>
like i can see maybe palestine & montenegro selling<br/>
out immediately<br/>
<br/>
so maybe thats a cook or a bust<br/>
<br/>
but also maybe no problem either<br/>
since one never really knows what will actually go<br/>
down or when<br/>
while many other disintegrations seem unavoidable &<br/>
imminent<br/>
& a sufficient starting purse might only need 10<br/>
bettors or so<br/>
<br/>
like say if we could get a taker each for 10 different<br/>
countries <br/>
all at 10 to 1 odds<br/>
we would already have a sufficient purse<br/>
<br/>
probably necessary to limit the choices to the first<br/>
10 bettors to grab each of them up etc<br/>
like stocks that sell out at a certain point<br/>
rather than leaving the betmaking open til the winner<br/>
becomes so obvious that the odds structure collapses<br/>
<br/>
which would fairly obviously be a huge mistake<br/>
<br/>
so some parameters would have to be set to avert it<br/>
<br/>
etc etc <br/>
<br/>
anyway following are the 100 or so that come<br/>
immediately to mind<br/>
<br/>
for it would be nice to begin from some sort of<br/>
consensus 100<br/>
ridiculous as they all individually or collectively<br/>
may be or seem<br/>
<br/>
one idea being that if anyone wants to add &<br/>
completely own a name at 10 to 1 odds <br/>
they could bet a maximum amount on it<br/>
to be determined<br/>
or they could be one of say 10 shareholders of that<br/>
candidate<br/>
<br/>
of course the house would need to reserve 10 percent<br/>
or so for itself<br/>
<br/>
& bets placed within say 30 days of actualization<br/>
would have to be void<br/>
<br/>
& there could be a replay option if no one gets the<br/>
first one right early enough<br/>
<br/>
with the house perhaps taking another 10 percent in<br/>
such a case<br/>
<br/>
but with the betting reopened from scratch as well<br/>
<br/>
like a lottery jackpot that builds<br/>
<br/>
etc etc<br/>
<br/>
too crazy to seriously contemplate in full yet<br/>
<br/>
might need to be so many rules as to make it<br/>
unappealingly complex<br/>
<br/>
like what happens if you get the idea right but the<br/>
ultimate name slightly or entirely wrong <br/>
<br/>
etc <br/>
<br/>
etc<br/>
<br/>
but anyway please chime in anyway you like<br/>
<br/>
abkhazia<br/>
aceh<br/>
airrecu<br/>
akwesasne<br/>
alaska<br/>
alberta<br/>
algonquin<br/>
alsace lorraine<br/>
anguilla<br/>
anjouan<br/>
aragon<br/>
assam<br/>
asturias<br/>
ausonia<br/>
azores<br/>
baluchistan<br/>
bavaria<br/>
boer<br/>
bougainville<br/>
british columbia<br/>
cabinda<br/>
catalunya<br/>
chechnya<br/>
cornwall<br/>
corsica<br/>
dalitstan<br/>
danzig<br/>
darfur<br/>
euzkadi<br/>
faeroe islands<br/>
flanders<br/>
galicia<br/>
greenland<br/>
guyane<br/>
hawaii<br/>
howland & baker<br/>
inner mongolia<br/>
jammu & kashmir<br/>
kanak<br/>
karen<br/>
kassala<br/>
katanga<br/>
khalistan<br/>
kosovo<br/>
krajina<br/>
kurdistan<br/>
leon<br/>
makira<br/>
moluccas<br/>
montenegro<br/>
mughalstan<br/>
mustang<br/>
nagaland<br/>
nagorno karabakh<br/>
navajoland<br/>
nevis<br/>
new england<br/>
newfoundland & labrador<br/>
new hebrides<br/>
northern cyprus<br/>
nuevo leon<br/>
nunavut<br/>
occitania<br/>
ontario<br/>
padania<br/>
palestine<br/>
pampas<br/>
puerto rico<br/>
punt<br/>
quebec<br/>
ryukyus<br/>
sarawak<br/>
savoy<br/>
santa cruz<br/>
scotland<br/>
seborga<br/>
somaliland<br/>
southern mongolia<br/>
southern sudan<br/>
south ossetia<br/>
sucre<br/>
tahiti aka french polynesia<br/>
taiwan<br/>
tamil eelam<br/>
tibet<br/>
tigre<br/>
transdneistr<br/>
turkmeneli<br/>
ulster<br/>
uyghuristan<br/>
vatican city<br/>
vojvodina<br/>
wales<br/>
wallonia<br/>
western canada<br/>
western sahara aka sahrawi<br/>
western solomons<br/>
west papua<br/>
yap<br/>
<br/>
anyway sock it to me<br/>
<br/>
i think i might accept any bets if they were small<br/>
enough for starters<br/>
but dont send any money yet<br/>
since maybe someone else has some better ideas<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
<br/>
		<br/>
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